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Monday, November 5, 2012

My presidential election prediction

by John MacBeath Watkins

I'm predicting Obama will win a narrow victory, with a coalition consisting mostly of white voters, with substantial numbers of Hispanics, blacks, various Asian ethnic groups, pacific islanders, etc. Romney's vote total will be about 90 percent white. Glen Beck will say that Obama is a racist.

Demographics are catching up with the old Nixon version of the Republican coalition:

"Republican strategists clearly feel the weight of trying to assemble a national majority with so little support among minorities that they must win three in five whites. “This is the last time anyone will try to do this,” one said. A GOP coalition that relies almost entirely on whites could squeeze out one more narrow victory in November. But if Republicans can’t find more effective ways to bridge the priorities of their conservative core and the diversifying Next America, that weight will grow more daunting every year. "
The story that quote came from was titled "Obama Needs 80% of Minority Vote to Win 2012 Presidential Election." The thing is, "minority" is not an ethnic group, it describes a large number of ethnic groups that have one thing in common: They've been snubbed by the GOP. More on the coalition Nixon assembled in 1968, which has powered the Republican Party to many victories since, here: http://booksellersvsbestsellers.blogspot.com/2012/10/romney-and-weakness-of-nixons-electoral.html

And more here: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/05/26/080526fa_fact_packer?currentPage=1

I believe Romney will get about a quarter of the Latino vote, compared to George W. Bush's 40 percent, making him more dependent on the white vote than other recent GOP candidates.

The Democrats will keep a narrow majority in the Senate, the Republicans will keep a reduced majority in the House. The Republican 4-year temper tantrum will continue.

Obama's coalition is pretty much the same one Democrats have had since 1968, as well. One Democratic pollster remarked that the Democrats' coalition is "diverse America and Whites comfortable with diverse America," which apparently has never risen above 48% of whites.  Republicans in Florida and Texas are beginning to adapt to the new demographic realities, so the Democrats will certainly not have everything their own way in a new, browner America. A little history: http://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2008/12/05/presidential-candidates-share-of-white-vote-1968-2008/

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